- On-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin’s recent recovery toward US$74K is a “bull trap” likely to last until the end of April before the broader downtrend resumes.
- Bitcoin has declined 46.82% from its October 2025 all-time high of US$126K, with Woo placing the asset “solidly in the middle of its bear market” based on liquidity flows rather than price action alone.
- Supporting data from Santiment and CryptoQuant aligns with Woo’s bearish outlook, with whale selling continuing even as retail investors buy below US$70K.
Bitcoin’s fallout from a record US$126K (AU$180K) in October 2025 surely made a lot of people nervous, waiting for some kind of rebound, no matter how small.
That said, Bitcoin’s move back toward US$74,000 (AU$105K) may not mark a real recovery, as on-chain analyst Willy Woo warns it’s just a classic bull trap.
Woo’s view is that the market is no longer in the early stage of the downturn. He has described Bitcoin as being in the middle part of a bear cycle, where temporary rallies can appear convincing but fail because longer-term capital has not returned. He said the current bounce could continue through the end of April, but not necessarily change the wider direction.
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A Three-Phase Bear Market
Woo’s analytical framework breaks Bitcoin bear markets into three phases.
In February, he said the market was moving from the first phase into the second, a stage where weakening liquidity spreads across broader risk assets.
The final phase, in his framework, occurs only after a deeper capitulation followed by renewed long-term capital entering the market.
Based on this model, Woo projects a potential cycle bottom near US$45K (AU$64K) in late 2026, with a new bull market possibly emerging in 2027.
Sentiment Data Supports the Bearish Case
Data from Santiment shows large holders continuing to sell while retail traders accumulate Bitcoin below US$70K (AU$100K), a pattern the firm says often precedes further corrections.
CryptoQuant has also indicated the market still reflects bear-cycle conditions despite the recent rebound. It should be noted the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has returned to “extreme fear,” which clearly suggests market confidence remains weak.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen, independently, characterised 2026 as “a bear market year” for Bitcoin, stating new all-time highs are unlikely before conditions improve substantially.
Bitcoin was trading at US$67K (AU$95K) at the time of publication, up 3.74% over the past 30 days but still sitting 46.82% below its all-time high. The asset touched recent lows near US$59K (AU$89K) in February before recovering.
Read more: OKX Says Australia Could Unlock $24B Digital Finance Boom With Faster Crypto Rules
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