SpaceX stock sinks below $120 as Tesla earnings and Starship test loom

SpaceX stock has fallen to $119.79 after seven straight losing sessions, leaving SPCX 11% below its $135 IPO price before Tesla’s second-quarter earnings and a renewed Starship launch attempt.

TradingView’s one-hour chart shows SPCX pressing against the lower boundary of a descending channel that has guided the stock down from around $170 at the start of July. The shares closed 0.93% lower in the chart’s latest session after trading between $119.69 and $121.03.

Although SPCX gained about 1.6% before Monday’s opening bell, the advance faded during regular trading as sellers extended the stock’s losing run. T/he shares ended Monday below $120, about 47% under the post-IPO peak above $225 reached in June. SpaceX’s investor relations page placed the stock near $122.50 earlier in Monday’s session.

Attention has now turned to Tesla, which will publish its April-to-June results after markets close on July 22. Tesla’s investor relations department said management will hold its earnings webcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day.

Tesla’s own analyst consensus calls for quarterly revenue of $27.58 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders of about $1.28 billion. The estimates follow second-quarter production of 451,758 vehicles and deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, according to the electric-car maker.

Speculation about a combination between Tesla and SpaceX has increased the report’s relevance for SPCX investors. According to JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, a possible transaction appears “strategically coherent on paper,” given the companies’ shared leadership and overlapping activities.

JPMorgan identified possible links across artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, transport and space. The bank also noted that Elon Musk leads both companies, while their engineering resources and long-term technology plans could support operational cooperation. However, JPMorgan presented the transaction as a possible strategic fit rather than a confirmed negotiation.

Descending channel keeps SPCX under pressure

On the one-hour chart, SPCX remains inside a falling parallel channel formed through a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. TradingView data places the lower channel boundary around $118 to $120, making this range the first technical level to watch after the stock’s slide below $123.

A rebound from the channel floor would initially bring the upper boundary near $125 into focus. Based on the chart structure, a confirmed move above that line would break the immediate pattern and could open a recovery toward the $135 IPO price, which has changed from support into resistance following last week’s decline.

Failure to hold $118 would instead extend the channel breakdown and remove the clearest visible support on the one-hour timeframe. Under that scenario, the chart leaves the psychological $100 level as the next major downside area, although price would need to confirm a close beneath the channel before that target becomes active.

Selling pressure remains visible in the Chaikin Money Flow reading of minus 0.13. A value below zero means the indicator has recorded more distribution than accumulation during its 20-period window, limiting evidence that buyers have taken control at current prices.

At the same time, the Average Directional Index stands at 31.72. As ADX readings above 25 usually signal a developed trend, the indicator shows that SPCX’s existing downtrend still carries strength even as the stock tests the channel floor.

ARK Invest has continued buying during the decline. As crypto.news reported, Cathie Wood’s firm purchased 147,805 SpaceX shares worth more than $18 million on July 17, dividing the position among four exchange-traded funds. The purchases followed a weekly loss of nearly 15%, which pulled SPCX below its offer price. Investor’s Business Daily

According to Barchart data, retail traders bought about $320 million of SPCX shares during July, making SpaceX the most sought-after U.S. stock among individual investors over the measured period. Earlier demand was also strong at listing, with crypto.news reporting that retail orders exceeded $70 billion before the June IPO.

Pentagon talks and Starship test offer catalysts

Operational developments could compete with Tesla’s results for investors’ attention. Reuters reported that SpaceX is discussing a deal to provide the U.S. Department of Defense with data-center capacity for running AI models, citing an earlier Wall Street Journal report. People familiar with the talks reportedly valued the potential arrangement in the billions of dollars.

Such an agreement would add to SpaceX’s existing military work. In May, the U.S. Space Force awarded the company a $2.29 billion fixed-price contract to build a secure satellite network connecting military sensors and weapons systems.

SpaceX has also rescheduled Starship Flight 13 for July 23 after engine trouble stopped the July 16 attempt moments before launch. As crypto.news reported, the company modified the vehicle’s propulsion system and plans to carry 20 Starlink satellites during the test.

With SPCX sitting at the bottom of its falling channel, the TradingView chart makes $118 support and $125 resistance the immediate boundaries, while Tesla’s earnings, Pentagon negotiations and Thursday’s Starship test provide three event-driven catalysts.