- Gold ETFs recorded approximately US$11 billion in outflows in the first three weeks of March, led by SPDR Gold Shares’ record US$7 billion (AU$10.07 billion) monthly redemption.
- JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that gold’s market liquidity has “deteriorated below bitcoin’s for the first time,” marking a historic shift in relative market depth.
- Gold has fallen roughly 15% from its January record near US$5,500 per ounce, while Bitcoin stabilised around US$69,000 after an initial drawdown when the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28.
Bitcoin (BTC) held up better than gold and silver during the Iran conflict, as heavy outflows from precious metals funds contrasted with continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and a shift in market correlations.
In a March 26 report, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said gold market liquidity had fallen below Bitcoin’s for the first time.
The bank linked the selloff in metals to profit-taking in crowded trades, higher interest rates tied to war-driven inflation, and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Gold has fallen about 15% from a January high near US$5,500 (AU$8,415) per ounce to about US$4,450 (AU$6,809), marking its steepest weekly drop in more than 14 years. Silver dropped from nearly US$120 (AU$184) per ounce to US$69 (AU$106).
Moreover, Gold ETFs lost about US$11 billion (AU$16.83 billion) in the first three weeks of March. SPDR Gold Shares alone saw US$7 billion (AU$10.71 billion) in monthly outflows, including US$3 billion (AU$4.59 billion) on March 6, its biggest one-day withdrawal in two years.
iShares Gold Trust lost US$3.77 billion (AU$5.77 billion), while silver ETF inflows built up since mid-2025 were fully erased.
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ETF Flows Tell the Story
Bitcoin ETFs moved the other way, drawing about US$2.5 billion (AU$3.83 billion) in March. BlackRock’s IBIT brought in US$1.1 billion (AU$1.68 billion) between March 2 and 4 and posted seven straight inflow days from March 9 to 17, totaling US$1.47 billion (AU$2.25 billion).
Bitcoin initially dropped when the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28, falling from about US$66,000 (AU$100,980) to US$63,000 (AU$96,390), wiping roughly US$128 billion (AU$195.84 billion) in market value.
BTC then rebounded to US$73,156 (AU$111,929) by March 5. Over the same period, the BTC-gold correlation moved from -0.49 to +0.16, which JPMorgan called a statistically significant regime change.
Selling by long-term Bitcoin holders also eased. Their 30-day net position change improved from -243,737 BTC on Feb. 5 to -31,967 BTC by March 1, an 87% reduction.
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Even so, JPMorgan described the move as “safe-haven-like demand” rather than proof Bitcoin has become a full safe haven. That caution was reinforced by a US$129 million (AU$197 million) one-day ETF outflow after the FOMC on March 18, showing Bitcoin remains exposed to broader macro shocks.
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