- Google has published research outlining a much more efficient implementation of Shor’s Algorithm, which will likely make it easier to use quantum computers to break current cryptographic algorithms.
- Google now warns that a large-scale transition to post-quantum cryptography should occur before 2029 to address the threat posed by quantum computers.
- Crypto leaders have debated the significance of the research with some considering it an existential threat to crypto, while others consider it more of an upgrade challenge.
New research from Google has sparked fears that the threat to cryptocurrencies from quantum computing is more urgent than previously thought, triggering industry discussion about how serious of a threat quantum truly poses and how soon that threat will hit.
The research, published by Google Quantum AI researchers on March 30, describes a more efficient implementation of Shor’s Algorithm, which the researchers say drastically reduces the quantum computing resources required to break current cryptographic private keys. That makes it likely the risk posed by quantum computing will become real sooner than previously expected.
Unusually, Google chose not to publish details of their more efficient method, instead opting to provide evidence via zero-knowledge proofs — suggesting they consider this method too high-risk to disclose.
In the days before the research was published, Google publicly warned that systems should now transition to post-quantum cryptographic security by 2029.
“Google’s introducing a 2029 timeline to secure the quantum era with post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration,” Heather Adkins, Google’s VP of Security Engineering, wrote in a post published March 25.
Quantum computers will pose a significant threat to current cryptographic standards, and specifically to encryption and digital signatures.
Heather Adkins, Google It’s not just crypto at risk from quantum computing. Most computer systems on earth — including many of the most critical systems — rely on the same elliptic-curve cryptography that digital assets use. Once quantum computers that are capable of breaking this kind of cryptography get out into the wild — a date often referred to by cryptographers as ‘Q-Day’ — most of the private keys currently being used to secure computer systems will be rendered effectively useless.
Fortunately, several cryptographic algorithms considered ‘post-quantum’ have already been developed and are ready to be used in production.
Related:Coinbase Sets Up Quantum Watchdog to Stress-Test Blockchain Security
Crypto Leaders Differ, Give Their Takes On Quantum Threat
Speaking on the Aubservation podcast earlier this week, Nic Carter, a founder of blockchain-focussed venture capital firm Castle Island Ventures, likened the threat of quantum computers to the development of nuclear weapons, saying “it’s similar stakes for sure.”
Posting on X, Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly, said the quantum threat posed to cryptocurrency is “serious shit” and encouraged all blockchains to look to transition to post-quantum cryptography as soon as possible.
“This is wild. Google Research demonstrates a ~20x more efficient implementation of Shor’s algorithm that could break ECDSA keys within minutes with ~500K physical qubits,” Qureshi said.
All blockchains need a transition plan ASAP. Post-quantum is no longer a drill.
Haseeb Qureshi, Managing partner at Dragonfly Meanwhile, Alex Pruden, CEO and co-founder of blockchain-focussed security firm Project Eleven, told The Block that because Google’s new, more efficient use of Shor’s algorithm could break elliptic-curve cryptography in just a few minutes, all active Bitcoin transactions could potentially be at risk.
“A 9-minute crack is faster than Bitcoin’s average 10-minute block time,” Pruden said. “Every active transaction is a target.”
Some aren’t quite so alarmed. Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, puts the risk of ‘Q-Day’ occurring by 2032 at 10% or higher, but says he considers it unlikely a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) will emerge before 2030, despite Google’s breakthrough.
“My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there’s at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key,” Drake said on X.
But Drake also emphasised that now is “undoubtedly the time to start preparing” for the quantum threat.
Related:Saylor Brushes Off Quantum Fears, Says Bitcoin Can Adapt
Because of its decentralised and distributed nature, upgrading crypto networks to post-quantum cryptographic standards is more complex than it would be for centralised systems and could potentially lead to forking of networks and other complications.
Former Binance CEO, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, said “it’s hard to organize upgrades in a decentralized world. There will likely be many debates on which algorithm(s) to use, resulting in some forks.”
Zhao also noted that the upgrades themselves could lead to further bugs and that users will also need to migrate to post-quantum wallets. He struck an optimistic tone, saying that fundamentally “It’s always easier to encrypt than decrypt. More computing power is always good. Crypto will stay, post quantum.”
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