- Bernstein lowered price targets for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure while maintaining outperform ratings, noting that a 60% decline from peak levels created a valuation discount.
- Analysts attributed the market sell-off to temporary pressures from the Iran conflict and cooling crypto sentiment, though they argued these factors did not change long-term revenue outlooks.
- Forecasts remained strong based on Coinbase’s interest income, Robinhood’s growth in prediction markets, and Figure’s achievement of 1 billion dollars in monthly blockchain-based loan originations.
Bernstein lowered price targets on Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure on March 30, 2026, while maintaining Outperform ratings, saying a roughly 60% decline from their 2025 peaks has pushed the three crypto-linked stocks into discount territory despite near-term weakness.
The firm cut Coinbase’s target to US$330 (AU$479) from US$440 (AU$638), Robinhood’s to US$130 (AU$189) from US$160 (AU$232), and Figure’s to US$67 (AU$97) from US$72 (AU$104).
But all three were notably below the firm’s revised targets, as Coinbase was trading near US$160 (AU$232), Robinhood around US$64 (AU$93), and Figure about US$31 (AU$45).
Bernstein said the sell-off reflects two temporary pressures, starting with weaker global risk appetite tied to the Iran conflict, and softer crypto sentiment after the cooling of last year’s bull market.
Likewise, the broker argued that neither factor changes the longer-term revenue outlook for the three companies.
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Bernstein Remains Bullish
Coinbase faces the sharpest near-term hit as spot trading volumes are tracking about 30% below Q4 2025 levels, leading Bernstein to cut its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate by 44% to US$5.97 (AU$9).
Even so, the broker kept its forecast for 26% compound annual revenue growth through 2027, supported partly by Coinbase’s roughly 50% share of Circle’s USDC income distributions, which provide recurring revenue less tied to trading volumes. Robinhood’s crypto business, which makes up about 20% of total revenue, is under similar pressure.
Bernstein’s longer-term case, however, focuses on prediction markets, where it forecasts US$586 million (AU$850 million) in 2026 revenue, up 286% from a year earlier. The note said Robinhood is well placed in a category that saw record activity as recently as late 2025.
Figure’s case is different again as the company, which went public in September 2025 at a US$5.3 billion (AU$7.69 billion) valuation, focuses on blockchain-based home lending and tokenised real-world assets rather than crypto trading.
Bernstein said crypto equities may be nearing a floor as weak first-quarter results are absorbed, with any re-rating likely to depend on whether the current risk-off backdrop begins to ease.
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