Coinbase emerges as World Cup winner in prediction market race

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already positioned Coinbase to capture part of an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion increase in prediction market activity tied to the tournament, according to Bernstein.

According to a research report published Thursday by Bernstein, the expanded World Cup is expected to generate more than $3 billion in additional sports betting handle while driving billions of dollars in new prediction market volume as fans engage with 104 matches over the month-long event.

The analysts identified Coinbase as one of the main beneficiaries after the exchange built a prediction market business that surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue in March, only months after launching the product.

FIFA expects around 6 billion people to follow the tournament worldwide, up from roughly 5 billion viewers during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Bernstein said the tournament arrives during a period that is typically one of the quietest stretches for online sports betting, creating an opportunity for prediction market platforms to attract new users and trading activity.

Coinbase strengthens its position in event-based trading

Earlier this year, Coinbase expanded into prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users across all 50 U.S. states to trade contracts linked to sports, politics, culture, and other real-world events.

At the same time, the exchange has been expanding its derivatives business. As reported by crypto.news, on June 11, Coinbase secured approval to offer access to global crypto perpetual futures to U.S. users.

Chief executive Brian Armstrong said the approval makes Coinbase the first U.S. platform able to connect customers with global crypto perpetual futures liquidity.

Armstrong argued that regulatory uncertainty had pushed much of the crypto derivatives market offshore, even as many American traders continued seeking access through overseas platforms.

Coinbase said the newly approved structure will connect U.S. customers to liquidity through Deribit, the derivatives exchange it acquired for $2.9 billion earlier this year.

Alongside derivatives and prediction markets, Coinbase has also introduced Coinbase for Agents, a platform that allows artificial intelligence systems to execute financial tasks directly through user accounts. The company said users can authorize AI agents connected to models such as ChatGPT and Claude to monitor markets, manage positions, rebalance portfolios, and execute trades based on predefined rules.

While the initial rollout focuses on cryptocurrency transactions, Coinbase said support for stocks and prediction markets is planned for a later stage, opening a path for automated participation in event-driven markets.

Sports contracts continue attracting the largest share of activity

Separate industry data suggests sports-related events are becoming the largest source of prediction market volume.

According to an April report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders accounting for more than 80% of participants. The report found users are increasingly remaining active across recurring categories rather than only trading around major one-time events such as elections.

Sports represented more than 39% of total prediction market volume in March, according to data cited by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, making it the largest category on many platforms.

Competition in the sector is also increasing. Bernstein expects Robinhood to benefit from the World Cup as it launches Rothera, its Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse. The analysts forecast roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for Robinhood during 2026.

Regulatory conditions may also become more favorable. On Wednesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released draft rules indicating that sports event contracts are generally not considered contrary to the public interest, despite federal law classifying them as gaming products.