Polymarket traders cut the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to a record-low 27% after the Senate postponed action on the crypto market structure bill.
Summary
- CLARITY Act passage odds fell to 27%, their lowest level since the Polymarket market opened.
- Senate leaders prioritized Russia sanctions and federal nominations before the scheduled Aug. 8 recess.
- Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are preparing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer for the White House.
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency could write crypto rules without Congress if negotiations fail.
CLARITY Act odds fall as Senate changes priorities
The Polymarket contract asking whether crypto market structure legislation will become law in 2026 fell to 27% on July 29. The price represents traders’ assessment rather than an independent forecast, but it shows growing doubts about the bill’s shrinking legislative window.
Galaxy Digital has also lowered its estimated probability of passage to 30% as negotiations extend further into the Senate calendar.
As crypto.news reported, Senate Majority Leader John Thune postponed action on the CLARITY Act while lawmakers considered a Russia sanctions package and a group of federal nominees. The Senate voted on July 28 to advance the sanctions legislation, leaving fewer working days for the crypto bill before the Aug. 8 recess.
Industry participants have urged Thune to begin the cloture process before the break, even if the Senate cannot complete a final vote. A procedural vote could establish whether the measure has enough bipartisan support to advance later in the year.
Senators prepare a new ethics counteroffer
Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan counteroffer covering ethics restrictions in the bill. The lawmakers expect to submit the language to the White House within days.
Tillis indicated that the proposal could allow state attorneys general to enforce its ethics provisions instead of giving that authority only to the Department of Justice. Ethics rules covering elected officials and their financial interests in digital assets have become a central point in negotiations.
A separate dispute over stablecoin rewards could create another delay. Banking groups have pushed lawmakers to restrict yield-bearing products that may compete with traditional deposits, while crypto companies argue that broad limits could reduce consumer choice.
Even if senators reach an ethics agreement, the bill must still clear procedural thresholds, pass the Senate and resolve any differences with the House version. Those steps make passage before the recess increasingly unlikely.
US crypto firms seek federal market rules
The CLARITY Act would divide digital asset oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its supporters say the framework would give exchanges, token issuers and blockchain developers clearer rules for operating in the United States.
Florida Rep. Mike Haridopolos renewed his support for the measure during a July 28 appearance on Fox Business. As crypto.news previously reported, the House Financial Services Committee member warned that continued delays could send investment and jobs to countries with clearer regulations.
“This is about making sure that American markets are the premier markets in the world,” Haridopolos said.
BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab and SoFi have also supported passage, challenging claims that Wall Street broadly opposes the legislation.
“The Big Bank Lobby is trying to say that all of Wall Street is opposed to the Clarity Act. That’s completely false,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis said.
The Consumer Technology Association has made a similar economic argument, warning that regulatory uncertainty could push capital and employment outside the country.
SEC could move ahead without Congress
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the regulator remains prepared to address parts of the crypto market structure debate through agency rulemaking if Congress fails to act.
Atkins described the SEC as “ready, willing and able” to write rules under its existing authority. However, he said legislation remains preferable because a statute would provide a more durable framework than regulations that a future administration could revise.
Independent SEC action may clarify how the agency treats certain tokens, trading platforms and tokenized securities. It would not fully replace legislation establishing statutory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC.
The bipartisan ethics counteroffer is now the bill’s most immediate test. White House acceptance could help negotiations continue after the recess, but the Senate calendar and unresolved stablecoin dispute leave the CLARITY Act facing its weakest outlook so far.
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