Senate Majority Leader John Thune plans to push the CLARITY Act toward a floor vote before the August recess, potentially forcing senators to publicly declare their positions even if the crypto market structure bill cannot overcome a filibuster.
Summary
- Thune wants a Senate vote before the August recess, despite uncertainty over the required 60 votes.
- Republicans need about seven Democratic votes if all 53 GOP senators support cloture.
- A revised draft includes temporary ethics restrictions on digital asset activity by senior federal officials.
- Polymarket traders place the bill’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at about 33%.
Thune wants senators on record over CLARITY Act
Thune wants the Senate to begin considering the legislation before lawmakers leave Washington for their summer break, according to Punchbowl News.
“I would like to at least get Clarity started. We’ll see where the votes are,” Thune said.
A floor vote would test whether months of negotiations have produced enough bipartisan support for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, formally known as H.R. 3633. It would also identify the senators responsible if the bill fails to advance.
The House passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 with bipartisan support. The Senate Banking Committee later advanced its section of the legislation in a 15-9 vote in May 2026.
Senator Cynthia Lummis released an updated version on July 22 that combines proposals previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees. The Senate is scheduled to remain in Washington until Aug. 7, leaving lawmakers with a narrow period to debate amendments and hold procedural votes. Lummis’ office confirmed that the new text merges the two committees’ work.
Democratic votes remain the main obstacle
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning the bill needs support from about seven Democrats to reach the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster, assuming every Republican backs it.
A group of seven Democratic senators led by Angela Alsobrooks has argued that the current proposal does not provide adequate consumer protection or safeguards against illicit finance. Ethics rules covering senior government officials are another unresolved issue.
The updated bill includes a temporary restriction preventing federal officials, including the president and vice president, from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. That provision is due to expire in 2029.
Lummis has acknowledged that negotiations must balance Democratic demands for stronger ethics rules with the risk of losing White House support. Senator Thom Tillis has also said lawmakers are “not quite there” on an ethics agreement.
Those divisions could leave Thune without the votes needed to begin formal debate. However, holding the vote would create a public record and place more pressure on undecided Democrats before the midterm election campaign intensifies.
Police union endorsement removes one hurdle
Law-enforcement concerns have eased after the National Fraternal Order of Police reversed its earlier opposition and endorsed the revised bill.
As crypto.news reported, the union represents more than 382,000 members and changed its position after reviewing language linked to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The group believes the revised provisions preserve the ability of police and prosecutors to investigate crimes involving digital assets.
The police union’s letter also cited safeguards addressing fraud involving digital asset kiosks, alongside anti-money laundering and sanctions obligations.
Its support removes one source of resistance but does not settle the wider dispute over consumer protection, ethics rules and stablecoin rewards. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Fidelity and several crypto industry groups have called for passage, while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has backed market structure legislation despite broader banking-sector concerns over stablecoin yields.
Failed vote could delay US crypto rules
CLARITY Act supporters say the legislation would establish clearer boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It would also create rules for digital commodities and certain noncustodial blockchain developers.
For US crypto companies and investors, failure would leave major questions about token classification, exchange oversight and federal jurisdiction unresolved in legislation. Agency guidance could still shape the market, but future administrations could revise those policies more easily than a law passed by Congress.
Senator John Kennedy has warned that the bill’s prospects will weaken if the Senate cannot secure a positive vote before the August break.
Prediction markets reflect that uncertainty. Polymarket traders currently assign the CLARITY Act about a 33% chance of becoming law during 2026, while Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate to 30%.
Thune’s planned vote may therefore determine whether negotiations continue with renewed urgency or move into a midterm cycle with less Senate floor time and a more uncertain political balance.
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