The Bitcoin price has already crashed by nearly 50% from its all-time high, and a top long-term bull believes there is more downside to come in the near term.
Summary
- Bitcoin price has slumped from the all-time high to $66,000.
- Standard Chartered warned that the coin may drop to $50k.
- Technical analysis suggests that the coin may fall before rebounding.
Bitcoin (BTC) retreated to $66,000 on Thursday, a few points above the year-to-date low of $60,000. This decline has persisted as its divergence from American stocks has widened, with leading indices such as the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 hovering near their record highs.
Bitcoin’s price may have further downside in the near term, according to Standard Chartered, which warned that the coin may crash to $50,000.
The bank then lowered its Bitcoin price target for the year to $100,000, down from its previous estimate of $150,000. It was the second major downgrade as the bank had previously set the target price to $300,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets, predicts there will be more capitulation in the coming months. At the same time, he pointed to the ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows, plunging futures open interest, and lack of a clear narrative.
“I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months. The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near [Kevin] Warsh taking over at the Fed,” Kendrick told The Block. “On the downside I think this will see BTC to $50,000 or just below, ETH to $1,400.”
SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed over $282 million in assets this month. They have lost close to $6 billion in the last four months, a sign that investors are capitulating, with some moving their cash to the booming stock market.
Meanwhile, the futures open interest has tumbled to $44 billion from last year’s high of $96 billion. Falling open interest is a sign that investors are reducing their exposure to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price technical analysis
The weekly chart shows that the BTC price has declined over the past few months and is now hovering near its lowest point of the year. It has already dropped below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages. Also, the Average Directional Index has jumped to 30, a sign that the downtrend is strengthening.
Therefore, the most likely outlook is bearish, with the initial target being at $60,000. A drop below that level will signal further downside to $50,000, as Standard Chartered predicts.
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