Bitcoin bottom or bull trap? Whales and bears disagree

Bitcoin is showing mixed signals as on-chain data points in two different directions.

Summary

CryptoQuant said record Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses showed whales were quietly building positions daily.
XWIN Research Japan said STH-SOPR near one showed short-term holders were selling at losses.
Negative Coinbase Premium showed weak US demand, keeping Bitcoin bottom confirmation out of reach now.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses are setting new records each day. The analyst said a large amount of BTC is moving into these wallets even as the market trades in a sideways range.

According to CW8900, whale activity appears to be keeping price action stable while accumulation continues. The analyst said large holders are maintaining prices and adding Bitcoin instead of selling into the market and creating panic among smaller investors.

CW8900 also said retail participation has thinned out. The analyst wrote that most retail investors have already left the market, leaving only a small group of participants while whales continue to build positions.

That reading supports the view that large players are buying quietly during a period of weak volatility. CW8900 said the trend increases the chance of an upward move if buying pressure continues without major disruption to price.

XWIN Research Japan presented a different view and said the market bottom is “not confirmed.” The firm pointed to the Short-Term Holder SOPR, or STH-SOPR, which tracks whether short-term holders are selling Bitcoin at a profit or a loss.

The report said the indicator is hovering around or below 1. That level usually shows that short-term holders are selling at a loss, a pattern often seen when weaker hands exit during a correction.

XWIN Research Japan said this can appear in the early stage of bottom formation. Still, the firm said that selling pressure alone does not confirm a reversal unless buyers step in with clear demand.

That is why the firm also focused on the Coinbase Premium Gap. The metric tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges and is often used as a signal for US spot demand.

Weak Coinbase premium keeps bottom debate open

XWIN Research Japan said the Coinbase Premium remains in negative territory. The firm said that reading shows US investors are not buying Bitcoin aggressively at current levels.

The report added that earlier bull phases often featured a steady positive premium, which helped support stronger upside momentum. That condition has not returned in the current market, according to the firm.

Taken together, the two views show a divided setup for Bitcoin. Whale wallets appear to be absorbing supply, but weak US demand is keeping the “bottom not confirmed” argument in place for now.

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