Benchmark cuts Strategy price target as Bitcoin thesis gets reset

Benchmark has cut its 12‑month price target on Bitcoin treasury company Strategy from $705 to $570, keeping a Buy rating but marking its model to a cooler Bitcoin path after a brutal drawdown in both BTC and Strategy’s stock.

Benchmark has reduced its target price for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) from $705 to $570, according to market news shared on X and corroborated by recent analyst‑ratings rundowns. The firm is keeping a Buy rating, but the lower target reflects a cooler outlook on near‑term upside after Strategy’s stock slumped alongside Bitcoin from its early‑year highs.

Benchmark had been one of the most bullish houses on Strategy. In multiple notes over the past year, the bank’s analyst, Mark Palmer, reiterated a $705 target anchored to an aggressive Bitcoin path, with at least one Investing.com piece noting that the model assumed BTC would reach $225,000 by the end of 2026. That framework used a sum‑of‑the‑parts approach blending the projected value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings, a 10x multiple on the company’s 2026 “Bitcoin dollar gain,” and a residual value for its legacy software unit.

Even as MSTR fell more than 60% from mid‑2025 peaks—dropping from roughly $457 to near $150 in one six‑month stretch—Benchmark repeatedly stuck with the $705 figure, arguing in a widely circulated note that Strategy was still “a bitcoin‑focused treasury company, not a traditional software name,” and that its BTC stash created substantial embedded optionality if the next Bitcoin leg played out.

As of early Q2 2026, third‑party trackers like BitcoinTreasuries estimate that Strategy holds more than 818,000 BTC, making it the largest listed Bitcoin treasury in the world by a wide margin. That balance‑sheet exposure means any recalibration of BTC price targets flows directly into equity valuation, which helps explain why Benchmark is now trimming its own upside band to $570 as the crypto market reassesses cycle extremes.

In an April research piece summarized by MEXC, Benchmark went out of its way to defend Strategy’s STRC perpetual‑preferred funding model, arguing that using perpetual capital to buy Bitcoin is “sustainable” and rejecting critics who likened the structure to a Ponzi scheme. The bank called Strategy “a pioneer, not a pariah, in corporate Bitcoin adoption,” and that broader thesis has not changed even as the headline target moves lower.

For now, the $570 figure still implies substantial upside from current trading levels, but it also signals that even permabulls like Benchmark are beginning to mark their models to a less euphoric Bitcoin path. How that interacts with on‑chain dynamics and ETF flows is a theme crypto.news has been tracking closely in recent coverage, alongside deeper dives into Strategy’s treasury‑driven equity story in a feature and a valuation‑focused analysis.