- Bitcoin reacted more strongly than major equity markets to softer US inflation, highlighting a growing sensitivity to macro liquidity conditions.
- On-chain data suggests selling pressure from long-term holders is easing while buyers absorbed much of June’s decline.
- The short-term holder cost basis near US$69,000 (AU$100,050) is emerging as the next major resistance, with stronger spot demand needed to sustain any recovery.
Bitcoin’s latest rally has brought the market closer to a key technical test, with Glassnode pointing to improving macro conditions while warning that stronger spot demand is still needed to confirm a lasting recovery.
The cryptocurrency climbed sharply after softer US inflation data, outperforming major US and European share markets following an extended period of sideways trading near recent lows. According to analysts, the move reflects fading selling pressure and buyers responding more readily to favourable macroeconomic news.
The market’s behaviour also signals a shift in what is driving Bitcoin. Rather than closely tracking equities, Glassnode analysts said the asset is increasingly responding to movements in the US dollar and broader liquidity conditions.
Related: Strategy Defends $3B Cash Reserve, Says Bitcoin Strategy Remains Unchanged
Resistance Level Comes Into Focus
On-chain indicators show long-term holders have reduced profit-taking, while realised losses among investors who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago have begun reversing after reaching elevated levels. Previous market cycles have shown this trend can coincide with the heaviest phase of distribution coming to an end.
Meanwhile, buying activity across both large and small wallets absorbed selling during June’s decline before easing as prices steadied.
Attention is now focused on the short-term holder cost basis around US$69,000 (AU$100,050), where analysts expect a significant market reaction because many recent buyers would be able to exit at break-even.
Although US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have eased, including inflows of US$181 million (AU$262.45 million) following US$424 million (AU$614.80 million) in outflows the previous session, analysts said derivatives positioning alone is insufficient without stronger buying in the spot market.
Related: Bitcoin’s “Mildest” Bear Market Yet: Analysts Split on Timing as Rebound Signals Recovery, Not Reversal
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