Cardano has fallen 1.39% to $0.1628 as rising short positions have outweighed whale demand two days before the Van Rossem hard fork.
Summary
- ADA fell to $0.1628 as traders increased short positions before the Van Rossem fork.
- Cardano whales accumulated ADA despite negative funding rates and rising futures open interest.
- Liquidity clusters at $0.160 and $0.170 could shape ADA’s next major move.
According to data from crypto.news, from July 16 showed ADA traded between an intraday low of $0.1611 and a high of $0.1664, extending its retreat from an early-July peak near $0.195. The decline came even as large holders accumulated ADA and Cardano prepared to activate its most important network update in years.
CoinGlass data placed ADA’s weighted funding rate at -0.0067%, indicating that traders holding short positions were paying those betting on a price increase. The long-to-short ratio stood at 0.58, while open interest rose 4% to $421 million as traders added new leveraged positions.
Those readings show that derivatives traders remained positioned for further losses before the upgrade, according to CoinGlass. However, the concentration of short bets also raises the risk of liquidations if ADA moves sharply higher.
Whale demand collides with bearish futures bets
Notably, wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA had increased their balances to the highest level since 2023. The accumulation is possible positioning by large investors before Van Rossem goes live.
Cardano’s governance approved the hard fork on July 13, according to Intersect, with activation scheduled for July 18. Intersect has also urged infrastructure providers to update their software before the network crosses the hard fork boundary.
Van Rossem is expected to lower execution costs, which would make transactions and applications cheaper to run on Cardano, according to Intersect. The update will also prepare the network for Leios, a later scaling upgrade intended to increase transaction capacity before the end of 2026.
The upgrade follows Vasil, which improved Cardano’s network performance and smart-contract efficiency when it activated on Sept. 22, 2022, according to Cardano’s official hard-fork record.
Despite the whale purchases, TradingView’s daily chart showed ADA holding below the Murrey Math resistance at $0.1709. Chaikin Money Flow remained slightly positive at 0.04, suggesting that buying pressure had not disappeared even as the token lost ground.
ADA faces liquidity pressure near $0.160
On the 4-hour chart, ADA had crossed above a descending trendline drawn from its July peak, but the move had not produced a sustained rally. TradingView’s Relative Strength Index stood at 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, placing momentum on the bearish side of neutral without showing oversold conditions.
The same chart placed the nearest major Murrey Math support at $0.1465. A daily close above $0.1709 would instead clear the bottom of the indicated trading range and leave the $0.1953 pivot as the next visible resistance.
CoinGlass’s three-day liquidation heatmap showed the nearest dense liquidity pool between $0.160 and $0.161, directly below ADA’s market price. A larger concentration appeared around $0.170, closely matching the resistance shown on the daily chart.
Based on the heatmap, a drop below $0.160 could trigger leveraged long liquidations and expose the $0.1465 support. A move through $0.170, however, could force short sellers to close positions and strengthen the recovery attempt as Van Rossem goes live.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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