Needham defies AI crash fears with bold SpaceX $250 target

SpaceX stock has steadied above its IPO price after Needham raised its price target to $250 despite growing warnings that an AI stock bubble could threaten financial markets.

According to Needham, the investment bank lifted its target on SpaceX shares from $200 to $250 while maintaining a buy rating, arguing that recent AI developments and upcoming launch milestones could support the company’s valuation.

The upgrade comes even as SpaceX stock remains under pressure after a sharp pullback from its post-listing highs.

Shares traded around $136 at the time of writing on July 15, down 0.18% on the day after briefly falling to the IPO price of $135 earlier this week. The stock had slipped below its Nasdaq debut price of $150 on July 7 as investors continued taking profits following its strong listing rally.

Needham sees AI and Starship as upside catalysts

Needham attributed its higher valuation to two near-term developments linked to Elon Musk’s AI strategy and SpaceX’s launch schedule. The bank said the release of Grok 4.5 on July 8 fits with Musk’s efforts to rebuild the company’s AI program, a development it believes could strengthen investor confidence.

The investment bank also pointed to the planned Starship Flight 13 launch on July 16. According to Needham, a successful mission could expand SpaceX’s commercial opportunities and act as another catalyst for the stock.

The bullish call stands in contrast to growing concerns about AI-related valuations. On July 8, former White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and Ryan Cummings warned that the AI bubble continues to inflate as technology companies keep increasing spending on artificial intelligence.

Those concerns gained fresh attention after Bank of England Governor David Bailey cautioned that a sharp correction in AI stocks could spill over into the broader economy. Bailey said such a downturn could eventually require central banks to respond with measures such as interest-rate cuts to limit economic damage.

Even with those warnings, investor appetite for AI companies has remained firm. Reports that DeepSeek is preparing an initial public offering at a valuation of roughly $75 billion have added to expectations for another major AI listing. The planned flotation follows reports that OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing to go public.

Technical picture points to a key breakout level

The hourly chart shows SpaceX shares trading inside a descending channel that has guided price action lower since early July. Although the broader short-term trend remains bearish, the stock has bounced from support near $135, where the lower boundary of the channel and the psychological support level converge.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing. The Relative Strength Index has recovered to around 36, keeping the stock close to oversold territory without yet confirming a reversal. At the same time, the MACD remains below zero, but its histogram has flattened considerably, indicating bearish momentum is weakening.

For buyers, the first technical hurdle sits near the channel’s upper boundary around $137 to $138. A move above that area could clear the path toward $140, while a sustained breakout may allow the stock to retest its Nasdaq debut price of $150. Conversely, if the $135 support fails, the descending channel suggests the current downtrend could continue.

Institutional investors have continued adding exposure despite the recent decline. ARK Invest purchased approximately $21.3 million worth of SpaceX shares on July 13, extending a position that began with a $528 million purchase when the company debuted on Nasdaq on June 12 under Cathie Wood’s leadership.