Will Bitcoin price break above $77,500 or reverse as the 4H MACD prints a bearish crossover at ascending channel resistance?

Bitcoin price is at $76,466 on April 20, pressing the upper boundary of a 4H ascending channel from the February lows while the MACD simultaneously prints a bearish crossover on the same timeframe, creating a directional tension that will define the nearterm trajectory heading into the FOMC meeting on April 28.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is at $76,466 on April 20, up 0.99% on the 4H session, as price reaches the upper trendline of the ascending channel that has framed the entire recovery from the February lows. The 4H MACD has simultaneously printed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line at 148.89 crossing below the signal at 200.00 and the histogram printing at -51.11. The four SMAs remain in a bullish stack below price: SMA 20 at $75,881, SMA 50 at $74,605, SMA 100 at $72,467, and SMA 200 at $70,552. The 4H volume of 3.1K BTC is modest, confirming neither a high conviction breakout nor a distribution event at this stage.

The ascending channel on the 4H chart connects the February lows near $59,000 with successive higher lows through March and early April, producing a clearly defined upper boundary now aligning near $77,500. The CME futures market closed at $77,540 on Friday before the weekend and reopened Monday at $74,600, creating an upside gap of approximately 3.8% that is acting as a nearterm technical magnet for institutional positioning.

The 4H ascending channel from the February lows is the dominant structural framework for Bitcoin’s current price action. Each prior touch of the upper boundary has been followed by a pullback toward the channel midpoint or the SMA ribbon, and the current test is the most significant since the channel formed. The 4H MACD bearish crossover at this level is the signal that most directly challenges the breakout case. When the MACD line crosses below the signal while price is at a key resistance, the technical convention is that momentum is shifting toward sellers before a breakout can be confirmed on a closing basis.

The histogram reading of -51.11 is modest relative to the 148.89 MACD and 200.00 signal readings, suggesting early-stage deceleration rather than deep bearish momentum. Early-stage crossovers at resistance levels that do not expand into deeply negative histograms have historically resolved with a retest of the resistance rather than a breakdown, provided the ascending channel structure holds on a closing basis below.

Analyst @ChmielDk, a trader with over 15 years of market experience who posted analysis on X, flagged $60,000 as a potential floor under a worst-case geopolitical deterioration scenario, while the CME gap at $77,540 represents the primary nearterm technical target that short covering and institutional buying could accelerate price toward if the sell wall is cleared.

Key Levels: Support, Resistance, and Price Targets

The SMA 20 at $75,881 is the first 4H support on a closing basis. A close below it removes the shortterm dynamic support and brings the SMA 50 at $74,605 into play, which aligns broadly with the ascending channel midpoint. A sustained close below $74,605 breaks the channel midrange and puts the lower boundary near $70,552 into focus, where the SMA 200 also sits.

On the upside, the channel upper boundary near $77,500 is the immediate resistance. A confirmed 4H close above it opens the CME gap at $77,540 as the first target, with $80,000 as the extended psychological objective. Per Coinglass data from April 17, a $450 million sell wall was identified between $75,900 and $76,300, and price is currently sitting directly on top of this cluster. Clearing it on volume is the precondition for a clean push to the channel upper boundary.

Invalidation of the bull case: a 4H close below $74,605 alongside continued expansion of the bearish MACD histogram.

On-Chain and Market Data Context

Bitcoin open interest stands at $57.15 billion per Coinglass, with 24-hour futures volume of $72.75 billion and $136.5 million in futures positions liquidated in the past 24 hours. The modest liquidation figure relative to total open interest indicates the current price has not triggered a cascade in either direction. Bitcoin funding rates on Binance have remained negative for approximately 46 days, meaning short positions have been paying long positions throughout the entire ascending channel advance. Persistently negative funding rates during an uptrend signal accumulated short-side positioning that becomes vulnerable to a squeeze if price clears the overhead sell wall.

Iran reimposed controls on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, effectively ending the two-week ceasefire and pushing Brent crude back above $100 per barrel. Bitcoin pulled back from Friday’s high of $78,000 as the macro risk environment reasserted itself at the weekend open. The FOMC meeting on April 28 and 29 is the next scheduled catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing a 98% probability of a rate hold. Until either the geopolitical situation de-escalates or the Fed changes course, Bitcoin’s nearterm ceiling is likely to be defined by the interplay between the ascending channel upper boundary and the accumulated short positioning sitting directly overhead.

If Bitcoin closes a 4H candle above $77,500 with expanding volume, the CME gap at $77,540 is the immediate target and $80,000 the extended objective. A failure to clear $76,300 on the current session and a reversal below $75,881 shifts the focus back to the channel midpoint at the SMA 50 near $74,605.