Will XRP price fall below $1.30 support after a failed breakout at $1.35?

XRP price has now rejected the descending trendline resistance at least three times since late March, and the most recent failure on April 6 to 7 arrived on rising volume, a signal analysts associate with bearish continuation rather than consolidation.

XRP (XRP) price is trading at $1.3184 on April 7, down 1.9% from the session’s high after failing to close above the descending trendline resistance near $1.35 on April 6. The rejection is visible on the 1H chart as a red arrow marking where price touched the diagonal trendline and reversed, the third such failure since late March with prior rejections marked at lower trendline contacts. The 1H Supertrend at $1.3247 is now sitting just above current price, providing an additional near-term ceiling that compounds the trendline rejection signal.

On the 1H chart, XRP is trading within a structure defined by a descending trendline that has produced at least three confirmed rejections since March 21, visible as orange circles at prior high points where price touched and reversed from the diagonal resistance. The red arrow marks the most recent rejection, the most significant because it followed a recovery from the $1.27 zone that briefly raised expectations of a breakout attempt.

The 1H MACD line sits at -0.0046, with the signal at -0.0059 and a histogram reading of 0.0013. Although the MACD line is fractionally above the signal, both lines remain in negative territory and the histogram reading of 0.0013 is too small to constitute a meaningful bullish cross. Per market data published April 7, the daily RSI stands at 38, described as “weak momentum, but not yet in oversold territory,” meaning there is no technical floor from that indicator alone. The same analysis noted that open interest is rising alongside falling price, a sign traders are adding short positions rather than accumulating, which tends to amplify downside moves if support gives way.

Key Levels: $1.28 Fibonacci and $1.15 Bear Target

The $1.30 to $1.31 zone is the immediate structural support. A closing break below it exposes $1.28, which has held since February and aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of XRP’s prior rally. Below $1.28, holder support thins materially toward $1.15 as the next significant structural level. On the upside, a confirmed daily close above the descending trendline at $1.35 is the minimum requirement to shift the near-term bias, and would also need to clear the 50-day EMA at $1.38 to open a path toward $1.40 to $1.45. The CLARITY Act, with a late April Senate markup targeted, is a binary catalyst that could shift the structural picture if passed, but a failure extends the current setup lower.

Derivatives and ETF Flow Context

Spot XRP ETFs recorded $3.56 million in net outflows in the week ending April 6, per CoinMarketCap data, reflecting reduced demand at a point where fresh capital is needed to challenge trendline resistance. The combination of ETF outflows, rising futures open interest consistent with short positioning, and thinning order book depth on Binance leaves XRP exposed to larger moves once either level breaks.

If $1.30 holds on a daily close, the range between $1.28 and $1.35 remains the decision zone. A close below $1.28 targets $1.15 as the next significant support.