- About 47% of all Bitcoin in existence is currently held at an unrealised loss, with US$304 billion of long-term holder supply underwater, the worst reading since 2023.
- The Bitcoin Impact Index jumped 13 points in a single week to reach 57.4, its steepest weekly surge since January 2026, entering the “High Impact” band that has historically preceded price drops exceeding 25%.
- Stablecoin netflows reversed sharply from a positive daily average of US$250 million to a negative US$292 million.
CEX.io’s Bitcoin Impact Index entered its “High Impact” range in Week 13, with a reading of 57.4, as Bitcoin (BTC) closed Monday at US$66,567 (AU$96,522) after a seven-day decline that erased roughly six weeks of recovery.
The index aggregates on-chain stress signals across holder behaviour, derivatives activity and capital flows. CEX.io defines readings between 50 and 74 as broad market stress affecting multiple investor groups and institutional flows.
One of the clearest stress signals came from long-term holders. Their SOPR, which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, fell to 0.724, the lowest level in three years.
More than 4.6 million BTC held by long-term investors are now at unrealised losses, equal to over 30% of total long-term holder supply, the highest share since 2023. The value of those underwater positions stands at US$304 billion (AU$440.8 billion).
Read more: US Crypto Czar Steps Down, Transitions to Broader Advisory Role
Long-Term Holders Break
The average long-term holder cost basis remains near US$43,000 to US$44,000 (AU$62,350 to AU$63,800), below the current market price, so the cohort overall remains in profit. The coins now being sold, however, are being exited at a loss.
Short-term holder cost basis is near US$84,000 (AU$121,800), and on-chain data indicates about 92% of recent buyers are below breakeven.
In derivatives markets, funding rates moved back toward neutral, but total liquidations still reached US$288 million (AU$417.6 million) for the week, nearly triple the previous week’s figure.
Long positions accounted for 61% of forced closures.
Stablecoin netflows shifted from an average daily inflow of US$250 million (AU$362.5 million) to an average daily outflow of US$292 million (AU$423.4 million). ETF flows also turned negative, and miners resumed selling after three weeks of holding.
About 20,900 BTC per day is moving to exchanges, a relatively low figure that indicates stress without broad capitulation. CEX.io identified similar Bitcoin Impact Index readings in mid-2018, mid-2022 and late January 2026.
Related: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Holds Strong While Gold And Silver Lose Their Shine
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