A new U.S. Senate bill aims to prohibit betting markets tied to war, assassination, and an individual’s death, a move that could have implications for prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket.
Summary
- The bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit trading contracts referencing war, terrorism, assassination or an individual’s death.
- The measure could impact event-trading platforms and prediction markets, where users speculate on real-world outcomes.
- The legislation would require regulated exchanges to avoid listing or clearing such contracts, giving regulators clearer authority to block them.
The legislation, introduced by Adam Schiff, is titled the Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act, or the “DEATH BETS Act.”
The proposal would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit exchanges from listing or clearing event contracts that reference terrorism, assassination, war or similar violent activities.
Under the bill, trading venues registered with the U.S. CFTC would also be barred from offering contracts that relate to an individual’s death or events that could be closely correlated with a person’s death.
What the ‘DEATH BETS Act’ could mean for Polymarket
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have gained traction in recent years, allowing users to speculate on the outcomes of elections, geopolitical events and other real-world developments.
The proposed legislation could tighten regulatory scrutiny around event-trading platforms that speculate on violent or tragic real-world outcomes. If passed, the DEATH BETS Act could also influence how prediction markets design future contracts.
The bill comes amid rising debate on how betting on tragedies or violent acts raises ethical concerns and could create incentives for harmful behavior.
Polymarket faced backlash recently over a controversial prediction market tied to the possibility of a nuclear strike. The platform later archived the market following criticism, highlighting the growing scrutiny surrounding event contracts linked to catastrophic or violent outcomes.
The legislation has been referred to a Senate committee for further consideration, and it remains unclear whether it will advance in Congress.
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