Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin target again on ETF outflows, Fed angst

Standard Chartered cuts 2026 Bitcoin and Ethereum targets again, citing weak macro, softer Fed-cut hopes, ETF outflows and shifting investor positioning.

Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin price forecast for the second time in less than three months, citing weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior in the cryptocurrency market.

In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, stated that Standard Chartered now expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reach its revised target by the end of 2026. The latest projection represents a significant reduction from the bank’s previous forecast for the cryptocurrency. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from a prior forecast.

Bitcoin pessimism remains

According to Bloomberg, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and changing investor behavior, particularly during the past month’s market downturn. Bitcoin has declined substantially from its October peak, while US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded sizeable net outflows.

Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured digital assets. Declining ETF holdings have removed a critical source of demand that supported previous rallies, according to the note.

The interest-rate environment remains a central concern for cryptocurrency markets. Market participants have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously expected. Kendrick also cited uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to caution around Bitcoin.

The bank warned that deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term.

Despite the more conservative forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous cryptocurrency market collapses. Kendrick highlighted that on-chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy. The market has not experienced high-profile platform failures similar to those that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion, according to the bank.

Standard Chartered also revised its outlook for Ethereum, reducing its 2026 price target for the second-largest cryptocurrency from an earlier projection. Analysts expect Ether could fall significantly before reaching that level, according to the note.